WASHINGTON — Donald Trump’s ouster has brought a normal rhythm back to politics in Washington, but deep forces outside the Beltway are shifting partisan landscape.
Data from the NBC News poll shows that voters involving two major parties are changing and that a major shift is coming in employment: the jobs that Democrats and Republicans work for. There are signs in ethnic and ethnic population groups that Republicans are becoming the party of the blue-collar Americans and that change is happening rapidly.
If the movement continues it could have a huge impact on the future of the GOP. Note the magnitude of the overall change.
Over the past decade, the percentage of blue-collar voters who call themselves Republicans has increased by 12 points. At the same time, the number of Democrats identified in the group has dropped by 8 points. Among white-collar voters, the numbers remain stable, with Democrats seeing a slight increase and Republicans a slight decline.
But that blue-collar change is significant because of the policy implications it could have on both sides. Blue-collar voters prefer things different from government than those with white-collar jobs in matters such as trade and Wall Street regulation.
When Republican voters joined former President Trump, we already saw some signs of what this change meant. Large money transfers are not usually a policy choice in dealing with Republicans.
In that sense, the blue-collar change for GOP has the potential to reshape the party, especially when you look at how far it goes.
You can see this among the white, non-Hispanic voters who make up the majority of the Republicans.
The numbers with those voters reflect that large-scale change — a 12-point gain for the GOP.
But the blue-collar pump is spreading to other Republican voter groups, including groups that are often difficult for the GOP to achieve. Hispanic blue collar voters have been skinning Republicans for the past 10 years.
That 13-point gain is interesting, bigger than the growth the Republicans had with the blue-collar whites, and it can certainly be considered a bright spot for the party as they try to find a way to infiltrate the fast-growing race. Team. For years there has been speculation that Democrats have a path to win Hispanic votes, but that is less true than believed, especially among blue-collar Hispanics.
You can even see the blue-collar growth of Republicans among African Americans, a population that has long been a problem for the GOP.
To be clear, those numbers are still very small. But given the Republicans’ struggles to push voters back, even a small positive movement is something the party should welcome. In the end the elections are all about margins, the vote can pay dividends in the nearest states if a group loses less than 7 points.
Not only are all of these data points significantly infiltrated by GOP blue-collar voters, but the party is increasingly relying on blue-collar voters as a key feature, otherwise a key feature of its alliance.
Political strategists often discuss the best way to win over voters: are cultural or economic appeals better? These reports suggest that economic appeals may provide the best way to expand the Republican appeal. That path, however, will change policy attitudes to better resonate with blue-collar voters.
Another point as the Republican Civil War deepens: Looking at these numbers, most of the GOP’s blue-collar development took place during Donald Trump’s presidency. If this is the path for Republicans to move forward, it could mean linking the party more closely with the former president.